What is the Future of Toronto’s Condo Market?

Toronto’s condo market has certainly experienced its ups and downs over the past ten years. From the US housing market crash in 2009 to all-time high condo sales in 2011 and the pricing boom in 2017, few could have predicted the way the market played out. 

But now that the rollercoaster decade is coming to an end, what is expected to happen in the market over the coming years?

What does the current Toronto condo market look like?

First, let’s look at what the condo market currently looks like in Toronto.

The average price per sqft of a resale condo in Canada’s biggest city rose 3.3 percent to $683 in 2019’s first quarter compared to the year previous. And the average price of a condo was up 3.6 percent to $579,000 in the same period, the slowest rate of increase since 2015.

Despite the growth being slow, the direction of the price gain remains on an upward trajectory. This is made all the more impressive when you consider Toronto condos saw a 35 percent price increase in 2017 – an increase that would have seen many real estate markets incur a sharp correction in the years that followed. But this hasn’t been the case. The price of condos in Toronto has continued to increase quarter on quarter, albeit at a less significant rate to that seen in 2017.

Outside of Toronto central, the Greater Toronto Area city of Mississauga, in particular, has seen a noticeable increase in condo prices over the past couple of years. Condos in the city have risen from $485,240 in 2016 to $672,000 in 2019 – a rise of 38.5%. This is compared to other GTA cities such as Brampton, that’s seen a risen from $374,596 to $401,189 (7.1%), Vaughan that’s decreased from $593,725 to $576,902 (-2.8%) and Markham that has also decreased from $554,643 to $533,790 (-3.8%).

Toronto condo prices have leveled off in recent years because of tighter lending rules and an increase in new supply. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) numbers show Toronto is close to an all-time high for homes under construction with over 70,000 condo units under construction in 2018.

Predictions for the coming years

The Ontario Liberal government has done much to make Toronto’s condo market more stable with no dramatic price shifts and only a couple percent flux per year.

In 2017 they released the Ontario Fair Housing Plan and from here, prime rates have slowly increased, making monthly mortgage payments more expensive. This has successfully slowed down the market, with price increases remaining at a manageable level. 

Tie this with an abundance of new condos being built, the demand for Toronto condos is being relieved and it’s expected that prices to stay stable for the coming years.

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